The Presidential Pensieve for October 12, 2015

Splash water drop


This week’s report is very short, mainly because there really aren’t any changes to report. Some polls remain skewed, some candidates remain under- or over-reported, and we’re holding to last week’s projections for vote totals, if the Iowa Republican Caucus were held tomorrow.

While some may reject the reality of what is happening in Iowa, the fact is little has really changed in the top four of the Republican presidential field for more than two months. Yes, the polls are a distraction, but several candidates polling in the single digits aren’t going to outperform their poll numbers enough to make a difference.

Translation: the only way to stop Donald Trump is to cull the field down to no more than four candidates. That’s not happening in the current environment without undue and potentially illegal outside interference.

We are holding to our turnout projection of 135,000, if the Iowa Republican Caucus were held tomorrow. That number will be impacted, moving forward, by a number of factors, including the perceived effectiveness of get-out-the-vote efforts and the weather.

•  •  •

The Rest of the Field — 19,500 votes.

7. Jeb Bush — 5,500 votes.

6. Mike Huckabee — 6,500 votes.

5. Marco Rubio — 8,500 votes.

4. Carly Fiorina — 9,000 votes.

2-tie. Ted Cruz — 21,000 votes.

2-tie. Ben Carson — 21,000 votes.

1. Donald Trump — 44,000 votes.